Market Pulse: Week 26
Overview
Following the unfolding news about the conflicts in the Middle East, Bitcoin broke out of its recent compressed range to the downside, briefly reaching a low of $98K over the weekend. Spot market activity showed mild signs of stabilization, yet trading volumes remain at the lower bound of historical norms. Futures open interest dipped slightly, while funding rates remained stable, suggesting a cautious but not overly risk-averse derivatives environment. Perpetual CVD, however, turned sharply negative, indicating aggressive sell-side flows that may hint at rising fragility.
In the options market, open interest held firm above statistical highs, reflecting sustained speculative activity. However, both volatility spread and 25-Delta Skew point to a recalibration in sentiment, less aggressive in pricing tail-risk, but still favoring calls over puts. On the ETF front, net flows remained positive though subdued, while trade volumes dipped slightly. ETF MVRV remained elevated, suggesting continued unrealized profit across institutional holdings.
Fundamentals saw a slight pullback. Active address counts contracted marginally, while on-chain volume and fee metrics remained range-bound, showing restrained user engagement. Capital Flows indicators such as Realized Cap change and Hot Capital Share showed muted improvement, with STH/LTH Supply Ratio continuing its downtrend, signaling persistent HODLing behavior.
Profit/Loss States metrics entered a cooling phase. Percent Supply in Profit declined to 91%, and NUPL softened notably. Although still within normal bands, this shift reflects tempered sentiment as investors reassess expectations. Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dropped sharply, suggesting a slowdown in profit-taking pressure.
In sum, the market appears to be stepping away from its previously overheated state. Moreover, with demand already showing signs of weakness and now facing renewed uncertainty, the risk of further downside correction remains elevated. A meaningful recovery will likely require a resurgence in investor conviction and fresh inflows from both retail and institutional players.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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