The Week On-Chain (Week 23, 2020)
Bitcoin Market Health
Bitcoin's price increased slightly over Week 23. Prices mostly fluctuated between $9500 and $9800, but BTC experienced a classic "Bart Simpson" pattern on Tuesday, spiking up to above $10,100 for around 15 hours before returning to the mid-9000s.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin on-chain fundamentals began to recover during Week 23. After several weeks of trending downward, GNI increased by 6 points, placing it back in the strong zone at 62 points. This was driven by an overall improvement in fundamentals, which saw all GNI sub-indices and their sub-categories experiencing an uptick last week.
Network Health increased by 5 points over the past week after improvements in network growth (i.e. adoption) and network activity. This increase follows a previous downtrend throughout the month of May, which saw the number of active and new entities decrease by over 10%.
Liquidity saw a 7 point increase last week, bringing it back into the neutral zone after having dropped down into the weak zone the previous week. Currently at 48 points, this increase was mainly driven by an 18% increase in transaction liquidity as on-chain transactions increased and fees continued to decrease after experiencing a post-halving spike.
Sentiment also increased last week, rising by 6 points as investors refrained from selling despite prices being in the high-9000s and even spiking above $10k for a day. This apparent hodling behavior suggests that investors may have an optimistic outlook on price in the near future.
Glassnode Compass
The Glassnode Compass outlines the general regime in which Bitcoin is currently located, based on its on-chain fundamentals (as determined by the GNI) and its recent price behavior.
After rising into the bullish Regime 1 during Week 22, the compass is now squarely in the green zone after experiencing increases in both GNI and quarterly price performance during Week 23.
With on-chain fundamentals seemingly on the rise and BTC seeing sustained values over $9k, the outlook for bitcoin seems to be stabilizing in the optimistic zone. However, market observers should watch for another week or two of continued growth in on-chain activity and adoption to determine whether this is an upwards trend or an isolated period of growth.
Bitcoin Miners Continue Hodling BTC
The flow of BTC from miners to exchanges dropped significantly following the halving, and has yet to recover almost a month later.
Logic dictates that the flow of BTC from miners to exchanges should drop by around 50% after a halving event, as BTC-denominated revenue drops by almost this amount (slightly less, due to fees staying consistent or even increasing). However, the number of BTC being sold by miners dropped by more like 65%, suggesting that miners are withholding their profits until the price increases.
Read our full article on this trend to understand the possible effects of miners selling their withheld BTC when the price rises in the future.
Product Updates
Metrics and Assets
- Miners Flow to Exchanges (BTC) - This metric shows the total amount of coins transferred from miners to exchange wallets. Available both as total flow to exchanges, and broken down by major miners.
- Miner Outflow Multiple (BTC) - This metric shows the amount of BTC flowing out of miner addresses relative to the historical average, highlighting periods of miner hodling and capitulation.
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