Analysis & Research The Foundational On-chain Metric: The Realized Cap The Realized Cap is one of the most important on-chain metrics, and is an essential primitive for analysts to master. In this report, we document how the Realized Cap, and its derivatives, describe the fear and greed response of investors, which are the primal forces driving Bitcoin market cycles.
Product Introducing Cointime Economics We introduce Cointime Economics, a new framework for analysis of the Bitcoin economy. It relates the concepts of time and supply to derive dynamic metrics of Bitcoins economic activity which account for both supply and demand forces.
Analysis & Research Buying High and Selling Low: The Long-Term Holder Learning Curve The age old market adage is to buy low, and sell high. However, a great many new Bitcoiner's do the exact opposite, riding heavy losses from the market peak, only to capitulate at the very bottom. In this piece, we visualize this phenomena, as it happens, on-chain.
Ethereum and DeFi Dealing With The DeFi Downtrend DeFi on the Ethereum is a centrepiece of the ecosystem, with DeFi protocols being a destination for tokens, stablecoins and NFTs alike. However, DeFi tokens remain in a multi-year, and relentless bearish trend. In this piece, we uncover why this may be.
Analysis & Research Estimating the Cost of Bitcoin Production The Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is one of the most remarkable of Satoshi's innovations, creating a system that autonomously seeks equilibrium in the mining sector. In this article, we estimate the cost of production, and derive several metrics describing the cyclical nature of the mining market.
Product Introducing Point-in-Time Data: Addressing the Mutability of On-chain Metrics We discuss when and how quickly on-chain metrics at Glassnode get updated and analyze the impact and magnitude of data updates. Further, we introduce a broad set of point-in-time metrics that do not suffer from look-ahead bias, making them the ideal candidates for applications in backtesting.
Analysis & Research The Shrimp Supply Sink: Revisiting the Distribution of Bitcoin Supply The supply distribution of Bitcoin continues to be a topic of great interest, for analysis of capital flows, and also for observing behaviors of investor cohorts. In this piece, we break down the BTC supply by wallet size, and explore how coins disperse over time.
Analysis & Research Mastering the MVRV Ratio The MVRV Ratio is one of the most popular and widely used on-chain metrics, however, much of the power of MVRV is rarely put to use. In this paper, we will explore how MVRV can be supercharged to find cycle extremes, identify market trends, and get advanced warning of sell-side distribution.
Analysis & Research Ordinal Theory and the Rise of Bitcoin Inscriptions Recent weeks have seen an very unexpected trend emerge on the Bitcoin network, being the permanent and immutable inscription of data, directly into the Bitcoin blockchain. Data files that have been inscribed range from images, to audio clips, and even a version of the video game Doom. This event has
Analysis & Research Ten Indicators for Tracking a Bear Market Recovery Identifying cycle changes is no easy feat, and there remains no single silver bullet to accomplish this task. In this report, we explore a suite of ten indicators which provide a useful toolbox for navigating these later stages of Bitcoin bear markets.
Analysis & Research Introducing Proof-of-Reserve Exchange Metrics We introduce an array of proof-of-reserve metrics to easily monitor the balances of exchanges' on-chain reserves held in self-reported addresses.
Analysis & Research A Challenging Bear Market The 2022 bear market has been exceptionally challening for digital asset investors, with Bitcoin and Ethereum down 75% to 85% from the ATHs. In this report, we explore the mechanics and performance of BTC, ETH and the wider digital asset ecosystem in 2022.
Analysis & Research A Bear of Historic Proportions 2022 has been a tough year for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with valuations being hit hard and fast. With the extensive duration , and scale of capital destruction of the prevailing, it can reasonably be argued that 2022 is the most significant bear market in digital asset history.
Analysis & Research Exchanges on the Road to SegWit Adoption: on Pioneers, Stragglers and Holdouts We take the recent release of Taproot as opportunity to investigate ways to measure the adoption of SegWit-related Bitcoin improvements in a meaningful way; simultaneously, we put a spotlight on exchanges and their SegWit adoption.
Analysis & Research A New Experiment in Cumulative Destruction Introducing the Value of Coin-days Destroyed Multiple, a metric that uses investor spending patterns to identify overheated and undervalued markets.
Analysis & Research Following the Smart Money: A Study of Long-Term Holders A deep dive analysis into the market psychology and fractals associated with Bitcoin Long-Term Holders.
Analysis & Research Surveying the May 2021 Sell-off After one of the most dramatic sell-offs in Bitcoin history, the conviction of investors has been put to the test, and we assess the markets response on-chain.
Analysis & Research Bitcoin's On-chain Market Cycles All market cycles are unique, but the human response to profit, loss and incentives can be strangely predictable. The trick is knowing what to look for in the data, on-chain.
Product Bitcoin On-Chain Exchange Metrics: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly In the present work, we give insights into the importance of analyzing exchange activity, the processes of accurately tracking exchange addresses, and the caveats that come with exchange data.
Analysis & Research Featured No, Bitcoin Ownership is not Highly Concentrated – But Whales are Accumulating We analyze the distribution of Bitcoin across network participants, and show that BTC ownership disperses over time and is much less concentrated than often reported. Meanwhile, BTC supply held by whales has recently increased, suggesting institutional investors are entering.
Analysis & Research 78% of the Bitcoin Supply is Not Liquid Quantifying the amount of liquid and illiquid BTC supply and its relationship to Bitcoin's price.
Analysis & Research Long-Term Holders Are Selling BTC: Why This Is A Bullish Signal On-chain metrics show that older coins are being sold as BTC's price increases, indicating that long-term holders are realizing profits. But while this might seem alarming, this trend has historically been extremely bullish.
Product Featured Quantifying Short-Term and Long-Term Holder Bitcoin Supply We introduce a new methodology to classify Bitcoin supply owned by long-term investors and short-term traders, and create a set of on-chain metrics that show when these two investor types are in a state of profit or loss.
Analysis & Research Filecoin’s Economic Failure: Are Miners Really On Strike? The long-awaited Filecoin network has finally launched. But immediately after its arrival, there are already claims of a miner strike and failed economic model, amid other controversies.
Analysis & Research Special Guest Report: In The Network (Bitcoin Q2 2020) In The Network by Formal Verification is an on-chain exploration into the current state of the Bitcoin network and its surrounding ecosystem using a multitude of both established and exotic metrics.
