The Week Onchain Newsletter Investor Confidence Slides With almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their position, sentiment has shifted towards the negative. In this report, we explore several measures to track investor sentiment. We develop indicators which assess divergences between the market and observed investor behavior.
Analysis & Research The Foundational On-chain Metric: The Realized Cap The Realized Cap is one of the most important on-chain metrics, and is an essential primitive for analysts to master. In this report, we document how the Realized Cap, and its derivatives, describe the fear and greed response of investors, which are the primal forces driving Bitcoin market cycles.
Finance Bridge Finance Bridge: Edition #4 In this issue, we revisit some of the foundational profitability metrics discussed in the previous months to check the pulse of the Bitcoin market. We also explore metrics shedding light on liquidity in the crypto markets and see how they can inform investors of risks.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Liquidity Drought Liquidity across the digital asset market continues to dry up, with both on-chain and off-chain volumes reaching historical lows. Whilst HODLing remains the market preference, a significant proportion of the supply is teetering on the edge of falling into a significant unrealized loss.
Ethereum and DeFi Tracking Sentiment via Liquidity Pools Volatility has returned to digital assets markets, with performance of ETH and many tokens experiencing outsized drawdowns. Derivatives markets are suggesting liquidity continues to move higher up the risk curve. We also deep dive into how liquidity pools provide market information.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Evaluating Exchange Risk With hindsight and lessons learned from FTX, the monitoring of exchange related risks is a critical component of digital asset risk management. In this report, we develop three indicators which may help highlight periods of heightened counter party risk.
Product Introducing Cointime Economics We introduce Cointime Economics, a new framework for analysis of the Bitcoin economy. It relates the concepts of time and supply to derive dynamic metrics of Bitcoins economic activity which account for both supply and demand forces.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Bitcoin Flash Crash The Bitcoin bulls have been caught off guard this week, as the largest single day sell-off of the year sends BTC prices below $25k. A deleveraging in futures markets appears to be the catalyst, however a bigger concern may be the 88.3% of Short-Term Holder supply now held in an unrealized loss.
Finance Bridge Finance Bridge: Edition #3 Finance Bridge deciphers the current trends in the digital asset market for institutional investors using on-chain data. Join us this month for a deep dive into the foundational concepts of UTXOs and URPDs and see how you can assess the market situation on their basis.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Exhaustion and Apathy The Bitcoin market has reached a stage of extreme apathy and exhaustion, with volatility measures and several key on-chain indicators reaching all-time-low readings. With the market being somewhat top-heavy, we assess how investors are responding to the boredom.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Volatility Crush Bitcoin prices are infamously volatile, however the market is currently experiencing an extreme volatility compression. Whilst options markets reflect this, it suggests that Bitcoin is either no longer infamously volatile... or volatility could be mispriced.
Ethereum and DeFi Is DeFi Back in Business? Regulatory conditions in 2023 have been a tug-of-war between positive and negative news, with altcoins and DeFi tokens being most heavily impacted. With MKR and COMP experiencing significant out-performance in recent weeks, we explore how we can extract information from changes in DEX liquidity.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Whale Watching Whale entities for Bitcoin are often cited as key parties that can have an outsized influence on price performance. In this edition, we isolate out Whale activity, which has seen a dramatic uptick over recent months, and develop a suite of tools to track their behavior.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Choppy and Sideways Despite BTC setting a temporary yearly price high of $31.7k, the Bitcoin market remains constrained within an extremely tight trading range. Several metrics indicate a slow and steady capital inflow, with many resembling the choppy market conditions seen in the 2016 and 2019-20 periods.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Stuck in the Middle Bitcoin prices have reached the $30k 'mid-point' of the 2021-22 cycle, with several metrics approaching levels associated with the 're-accumulation period' seen in past cycles. Inscriptions are cooling off, however monetary transactions are picking up steam once again.
Finance Bridge Finance Bridge: Edition #2 Finance Bridge deciphers cryptocurrency trends for institutional investors using on-chain data. This edition dives into the concept of Realised Profit and Loss in the on-chain context, explores Market Momentum through its lens, and addresses crucial Risk Vectors of regulatory uncertainties.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Surge in Liquid Staking Since the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, a very clear market preference for liquid staking tokens has emerged. Lido's stETH maintains an impressive dominance, with DeFi capital flows suggesting it has become a preferred collateral asset.
The Week Onchain Newsletter How Many Bitcoin Are For Sale? With a gold rush of applications for a Bitcoin ETF filed this week, a key question is, how many Bitcoin are active and available for sale? In this report, we try to measure the available supply, and assess how demand impacted valuations in past cycles.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Volatile Road to Nowhere Volatility, volumes, and realized values are at multi-year lows, indicating that Bitcoin investor apathy is firmly in play. However, under the surface, HODLers continue their classic slow and steady accumulation, with the halving now less than 1yr away.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Under Pressure: The SEC Charges Binance and Coinbase The US regulatory environment continues hostilities this week, with the SEC charging Binance and Coinbase for securities violations. In this edition, we assess the investor response from the lens of exchange inflows, and which investor cohorts panicked, and which stayed calm.
Finance Bridge Finance Bridge: Edition #1 Finance Bridge aids institutional investors in understanding the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and empowers them to make informed decisions that drive alpha. This issue explores Bitcoin's Market Momentum, unveils key Risk Vectors, and demystifies the concept of 'Payload' in onchain analysis.
Ethereum and DeFi Risk-Off Capital Rotation While digital asset prices have remained stagnant in recent months, several indicators point towards a risk-off rotation of capital taking place beneath the surface. Volumes have dried up, and investors are increasingly expressing a preference for stablecoin capital.
Analysis & Research Buying High and Selling Low: The Long-Term Holder Learning Curve The age old market adage is to buy low, and sell high. However, a great many new Bitcoiner's do the exact opposite, riding heavy losses from the market peak, only to capitulate at the very bottom. In this piece, we visualize this phenomena, as it happens, on-chain.
Ethereum and DeFi Dealing With The DeFi Downtrend DeFi on the Ethereum is a centrepiece of the ecosystem, with DeFi protocols being a destination for tokens, stablecoins and NFTs alike. However, DeFi tokens remain in a multi-year, and relentless bearish trend. In this piece, we uncover why this may be.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Seeking Equilibrium With prices tight, and the volatility spring coiled, the Bitcoin market looks increasingly ready to move out of the current equilibrium. As Long-Term Holder spending ticks marginally higher, we present a series of on-chain tools to help navigate the volatile road ahead.
