Analysis & Research

Buying High and Selling Low: The Long-Term Holder Learning Curve

The age old market adage is to buy low, and sell high. However, a great many new Bitcoiner's do the exact opposite, riding heavy losses from the market peak, only to capitulate at the very bottom. In this piece, we visualize this phenomena, as it happens, on-chain.

Ethereum and DeFi

Dealing With The DeFi Downtrend

DeFi on the Ethereum is a centrepiece of the ecosystem, with DeFi protocols being a destination for tokens, stablecoins and NFTs alike. However, DeFi tokens remain in a multi-year, and relentless bearish trend. In this piece, we uncover why this may be.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Seeking Equilibrium

With prices tight, and the volatility spring coiled, the Bitcoin market looks increasingly ready to move out of the current equilibrium. As Long-Term Holder spending ticks marginally higher, we present a series of on-chain tools to help navigate the volatile road ahead.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Quiet But Confident

The Bitcoin market has traded within an extremely tight price range this week, whilst on-chain volumes have been extremely light, hovering around cyclical lows. Meanwhile, large swathes of the coin supply remain dormant in investor wallets with supply in several key age bands hitting all-time-highs.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

A Bitcoin Blockspace Boom

Bitcoin blockspace experienced a historically significant inflow of demand last week, as speculators rushed to mint BRC-20 tokens via text inscriptions. This resulted in immense fee pressure, driving miner fee revenue towards ATHs, and surpassing the 6.25 BTC block subsidy for the fifth time.

Ethereum and DeFi

Post-Shanghai: What Really Happened

We previously simulated the potential economic outcomes of ETH withdrawals enabled by the Shapella upgrade. In this edition, we will examine what actually happened to the 1.55M withdrawn ETH, and how stake has reshuffled between stakers, staking service providers, and sell-side pressure.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Ancient Supply, Mt Gox, and US Government Coins

This week, the market experienced a sharp sell-off, following what turned out to be false rumours related to distributions by the Mt Gox Trustee, and the US Government. Add to this the revival of 3.2k ancient Bitcoin, and the market found itself amidst serious volatility.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

The Allure of Profit

After an incredible quarter of price performance, Bitcoin price action has taken a breather. In this edition, we evaluate participant spending behavior to assess the markets conviction towards the prevailing trend.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Is the Bitcoin Bear Behind Us?

Bitcoin has posted the strongest price performance since the market all-time-high, with several on-chain indicators signalling strength in support. In this edition, we assess whether the Bitcoin Bear may be behind us, and if a robust recovery is underway.

Ethereum and DeFi

Simulating Shanghai Sell-side: Investigating the Ethereum Unlock

The highly anticipated Shanghai/Capella hard fork is scheduled to take place on 12-April-2023, which enables withdrawals of staked ETH. In this piece, we establish cohorts of stakers, and assess the potential sell-side pressure which may occur due to the unlock event.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

The Binance Stablecoin Shuffle

With Binance firmly in the cross-hairs of US regulators this week, we investigate how the market has responded by deep diving into net coin flows through the exchange. We also assess the supply dynamics of Bitcoin, to gauge the shaking of holder confidence.

Product

Backtesting in Workbench

Discover Workbench's new backtesting suite and take your investment strategy to the next level. Test and compare trading hypotheses, and evaluate risk and performance with metrics like drawdown and Sharpe ratio. Explore basic and advanced trading strategy examples, including on-chain indicators.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

The Price of Time

After several weeks of out-performance by Bitcoin prices, the market is taking a breather. Within this consolidation, we will gauge investor confidence in the uptrend using a suite of on-chain tools, ranging from exchange flows, to profit taking, and coin holding times.

Analysis & Research

Estimating the Cost of Bitcoin Production

The Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is one of the most remarkable of Satoshi's innovations, creating a system that autonomously seeks equilibrium in the mining sector. In this article, we estimate the cost of production, and derive several metrics describing the cyclical nature of the mining market.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Bitcoin Shifts Up A Gear

Bitcoin has out-performed this week, rallying 35.8% against a backdrop of challenging conditions for the traditional financial and banking system. In this edition, we explore how Bitcoin appears to be shifting up a gear, and rallying out of deep bear market territory.

Product

Introducing Point-in-Time Data: Addressing the Mutability of On-chain Metrics

We discuss when and how quickly on-chain metrics at Glassnode get updated and analyze the impact and magnitude of data updates. Further, we introduce a broad set of point-in-time metrics that do not suffer from look-ahead bias, making them the ideal candidates for applications in backtesting.

Analysis & Research

The Shrimp Supply Sink: Revisiting the Distribution of Bitcoin Supply

The supply distribution of Bitcoin continues to be a topic of great interest, for analysis of capital flows, and also for observing behaviors of investor cohorts. In this piece, we break down the BTC supply by wallet size, and explore how coins disperse over time.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Three Fallen Banks

After one of the most consequential weeks of 2023, the digital asset industry is short three crypto friendly banking institutions in the US. However the principle investor response thus far appears to be a seeking safety in the most trustless major assets BTC and ETH.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

Market Meets Psychological Resistance

Bitcoin prices have been rejected from a series of psychological on-chain levels, related both to Older hands from the 2021-22 cycle and also for the Whale cohort. Profit-taking and capital flows have started to take place, although they remain low by historical standards.

Product

February 2023 Product Updates

The start of 2023 has been explosive for the digital assets landscape, with Bitcoin recording a 41% move upwards YTD, as well as significant regulatory challenges developing in the USA. We have also seen the unexpected phenomena of Ordinals and Inscriptions arise on the Bitcoin blockchain, sparking healthy debates regarding

The Week Onchain Newsletter

NFT Trading Professionalizes

Despite bearish sentiment, and an overhang of regulations, the application layer of Ethereum continues to flourish. The NFT market is experiencing great competition, with new marketplace Blur taking market share from leader OpenSea, driven by a strategy focused on traders and liquidity.

Analysis & Research

Mastering the MVRV Ratio

The MVRV Ratio is one of the most popular and widely used on-chain metrics, however, much of the power of MVRV is rarely put to use. In this paper, we will explore how MVRV can be supercharged to find cycle extremes, identify market trends, and get advanced warning of sell-side distribution.

The Week Onchain Newsletter

An Investor Turning Point

Despite continued regulatory pressure on digital assets exerted by the US, Bitcoin prices still rallied above $25k, and Inscriptions breached 100k total. Meanwhile, investor behavior on-chain appears to be reaching a turning point, hinting at a new cycle.

Analysis & Research

Ordinal Theory and the Rise of Bitcoin Inscriptions

Recent weeks have seen an very unexpected trend emerge on the Bitcoin network, being the permanent and immutable inscription of data, directly into the Bitcoin blockchain. Data files that have been inscribed range from images, to audio clips, and even a version of the video game Doom. This event has

The Week Onchain Newsletter

The Emergence of Ordinals

The digital asset market has experienced its first significant pullback of the year, alongside news of heavy US regulatory moves, and SEC crackdowns. Simultaneously, the emergence of Ordinals and Inscriptions on Bitcoin is creating a new, and unexpected demand for blockspace.