The Week Onchain Newsletter Seeking Equilibrium With prices tight, and the volatility spring coiled, the Bitcoin market looks increasingly ready to move out of the current equilibrium. As Long-Term Holder spending ticks marginally higher, we present a series of on-chain tools to help navigate the volatile road ahead.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Quiet But Confident The Bitcoin market has traded within an extremely tight price range this week, whilst on-chain volumes have been extremely light, hovering around cyclical lows. Meanwhile, large swathes of the coin supply remain dormant in investor wallets with supply in several key age bands hitting all-time-highs.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Bitcoin Blockspace Boom Bitcoin blockspace experienced a historically significant inflow of demand last week, as speculators rushed to mint BRC-20 tokens via text inscriptions. This resulted in immense fee pressure, driving miner fee revenue towards ATHs, and surpassing the 6.25 BTC block subsidy for the fifth time.
Ethereum and DeFi Post-Shanghai: What Really Happened We previously simulated the potential economic outcomes of ETH withdrawals enabled by the Shapella upgrade. In this edition, we will examine what actually happened to the 1.55M withdrawn ETH, and how stake has reshuffled between stakers, staking service providers, and sell-side pressure.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Ancient Supply, Mt Gox, and US Government Coins This week, the market experienced a sharp sell-off, following what turned out to be false rumours related to distributions by the Mt Gox Trustee, and the US Government. Add to this the revival of 3.2k ancient Bitcoin, and the market found itself amidst serious volatility.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Allure of Profit After an incredible quarter of price performance, Bitcoin price action has taken a breather. In this edition, we evaluate participant spending behavior to assess the markets conviction towards the prevailing trend.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Is the Bitcoin Bear Behind Us? Bitcoin has posted the strongest price performance since the market all-time-high, with several on-chain indicators signalling strength in support. In this edition, we assess whether the Bitcoin Bear may be behind us, and if a robust recovery is underway.
Ethereum and DeFi Simulating Shanghai Sell-side: Investigating the Ethereum Unlock The highly anticipated Shanghai/Capella hard fork is scheduled to take place on 12-April-2023, which enables withdrawals of staked ETH. In this piece, we establish cohorts of stakers, and assess the potential sell-side pressure which may occur due to the unlock event.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Binance Stablecoin Shuffle With Binance firmly in the cross-hairs of US regulators this week, we investigate how the market has responded by deep diving into net coin flows through the exchange. We also assess the supply dynamics of Bitcoin, to gauge the shaking of holder confidence.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Price of Time After several weeks of out-performance by Bitcoin prices, the market is taking a breather. Within this consolidation, we will gauge investor confidence in the uptrend using a suite of on-chain tools, ranging from exchange flows, to profit taking, and coin holding times.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Bitcoin Shifts Up A Gear Bitcoin has out-performed this week, rallying 35.8% against a backdrop of challenging conditions for the traditional financial and banking system. In this edition, we explore how Bitcoin appears to be shifting up a gear, and rallying out of deep bear market territory.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Three Fallen Banks After one of the most consequential weeks of 2023, the digital asset industry is short three crypto friendly banking institutions in the US. However the principle investor response thus far appears to be a seeking safety in the most trustless major assets BTC and ETH.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Market Meets Psychological Resistance Bitcoin prices have been rejected from a series of psychological on-chain levels, related both to Older hands from the 2021-22 cycle and also for the Whale cohort. Profit-taking and capital flows have started to take place, although they remain low by historical standards.
The Week Onchain Newsletter NFT Trading Professionalizes Despite bearish sentiment, and an overhang of regulations, the application layer of Ethereum continues to flourish. The NFT market is experiencing great competition, with new marketplace Blur taking market share from leader OpenSea, driven by a strategy focused on traders and liquidity.
The Week Onchain Newsletter An Investor Turning Point Despite continued regulatory pressure on digital assets exerted by the US, Bitcoin prices still rallied above $25k, and Inscriptions breached 100k total. Meanwhile, investor behavior on-chain appears to be reaching a turning point, hinting at a new cycle.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Emergence of Ordinals The digital asset market has experienced its first significant pullback of the year, alongside news of heavy US regulatory moves, and SEC crackdowns. Simultaneously, the emergence of Ordinals and Inscriptions on Bitcoin is creating a new, and unexpected demand for blockspace.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Shifting Tides Following an explosive month of volatile price action, Bitcoin is consolidating above the on-chain cost-basis of several cohorts. This puts the average BTC holder into a regime of unrealized profit, and demonstrates a potential turning of the macro market tides is underway.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Short Squeezes and Spot Demand Bitcoin markets have seen the strongest monthly price performance since Oct-2021, fuelled by both historic spot demand, and a sequence of short squeezes. In this edition, we explore the dynamics taking place in both derivatives markets, and the spot exchanges.
The Week Onchain Newsletter An Opportunity, or a Trap? The recent market rally has pushed BTC prices above $23k, and has surprised many investors. However, alongside higher prices, comes an increased motivation for holders and miners to take exit liquidity, especially after the prolonged and painful bear of 2022.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Is Bitcoin Back? After one of the least volatile months in history, Bitcoin has seen an explosive rally back above $21k. This puts the average BTC holder, and mining operation back into the black, making this rally stand out from all those seen in 2022.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Volatility Slumber The digital asset market has opened the new year...by staying asleep. Realized volatility for the two major assets has fallen to extreme lows. Such periods have historically preceded explosive market moves, with past examples both cutting asset valuations in half, and triggering new bull markets.
The Week Onchain Newsletter 2022 The Year On-chain As the chaotic, volatile, and financially brutal year of 2022 comes to a close, we explore the state of play across Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoin markets. This year in review will be the final edition for the year, and we look forward to returning for an exciting 2023.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Capital Reset In the wake of one of the largest deleveraging events in digital asset history, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has declined such that all capital inflows since May 2021, have now been flushed out. There is an associated uptick in on-chain activity, however it lacks substantial volume follow through.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Character of Capitulation As the dust settles after the FTX debacle, a key question is whether the sell-off can be better characterized as a simple continuation of the bearish trend, or instead a trigger of a deeper psychological shift amongst investors.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Uncertainty Amongst Whales and Old Hands In the wake of the FTX fallout, we explore the developing trends in on-chain data, which suggest that the confidence and financial position of Whales and Bitcoin old hands have been shaken by the event.
