The Week Onchain Newsletter The Price of Time After several weeks of out-performance by Bitcoin prices, the market is taking a breather. Within this consolidation, we will gauge investor confidence in the uptrend using a suite of on-chain tools, ranging from exchange flows, to profit taking, and coin holding times.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Bitcoin Shifts Up A Gear Bitcoin has out-performed this week, rallying 35.8% against a backdrop of challenging conditions for the traditional financial and banking system. In this edition, we explore how Bitcoin appears to be shifting up a gear, and rallying out of deep bear market territory.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Three Fallen Banks After one of the most consequential weeks of 2023, the digital asset industry is short three crypto friendly banking institutions in the US. However the principle investor response thus far appears to be a seeking safety in the most trustless major assets BTC and ETH.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Market Rejects Off the Cost Basis Bitcoin prices have been rejected from a series of psychological on-chain levels, related both to Older hands from the 2021-22 cycle and also for the Whale cohort. Profit-taking and capital flows have started to take place, although they remain low by historical standards.
The Week Onchain Newsletter NFT Trading Professionalizes Despite bearish sentiment, and an overhang of regulations, the application layer of Ethereum continues to flourish. The NFT market is experiencing great competition, with new marketplace Blur taking market share from leader OpenSea, driven by a strategy focused on traders and liquidity.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Investor Turning Point Despite continued regulatory pressure on digital assets exerted by the US, Bitcoin prices still rallied above $25k, and Inscriptions breached 100k total. Meanwhile, investor behavior on-chain appears to be reaching a turning point, hinting at a new cycle.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Emergence of Ordinals The digital asset market has experienced its first significant pullback of the year, alongside news of heavy US regulatory moves, and SEC crackdowns. Simultaneously, the emergence of Ordinals and Inscriptions on Bitcoin is creating a new, and unexpected demand for blockspace.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Shifting Tides Following an explosive month of volatile price action, Bitcoin is consolidating above the on-chain cost-basis of several cohorts. This puts the average BTC holder into a regime of unrealized profit, and demonstrates a potential turning of the macro market tides is underway.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Short Squeezes and Spot Demand Bitcoin markets have seen the strongest monthly price performance since Oct-2021, fuelled by both historic spot demand, and a sequence of short squeezes. In this edition, we explore the dynamics taking place in both derivatives markets, and the spot exchanges.
The Week Onchain Newsletter An Opportunity, or a Trap? The recent market rally has pushed BTC prices above $23k, and has surprised many investors. However, alongside higher prices, comes an increased motivation for holders and miners to take exit liquidity, especially after the prolonged and painful bear of 2022.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Is Bitcoin Back? After one of the least volatile months in history, Bitcoin has seen an explosive rally back above $21k. This puts the average BTC holder, and mining operation back into the black, making this rally stand out from all those seen in 2022.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Volatility Slumber The digital asset market has opened the new year...by staying asleep. Realized volatility for the two major assets has fallen to extreme lows. Such periods have historically preceded explosive market moves, with past examples both cutting asset valuations in half, and triggering new bull markets.
The Week Onchain Newsletter 2022 The Year On-chain As the chaotic, volatile, and financially brutal year of 2022 comes to a close, we explore the state of play across Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoin markets. This year in review will be the final edition for the year, and we look forward to returning for an exciting 2023.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Capital Reset In the wake of one of the largest deleveraging events in digital asset history, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has declined such that all capital inflows since May 2021, have now been flushed out. There is an associated uptick in on-chain activity, however it lacks substantial volume follow through.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Character of Capitulation As the dust settles after the FTX debacle, a key question is whether the sell-off can be better characterized as a simple continuation of the bearish trend, or instead a trigger of a deeper psychological shift amongst investors.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Uncertainty Amongst Whales and Old Hands In the wake of the FTX fallout, we explore the developing trends in on-chain data, which suggest that the confidence and financial position of Whales and Bitcoin old hands have been shaken by the event.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Fall of FTX With the devastating collapse of the FTX exchange, the digital asset industry has experienced the most shocking insolvency of a custodian since Mt Gox. In this report, we analyze the FTX bank run, seeking of safety in self-custody, and the response of Bitcoin's strongest hands.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Slowly but Surely Bitcoin faces strong resistance as it approaches several key on-chain cost basis. With very early signs pointing to a a positive shift in demand, and a convergence of market acquisition prices, the Bitcoin holder-base is slowly but surely becoming saturated by those with the strongest resolve.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Hammering Out The Bottom Bitcoin has rallied back above the key $20k psychological level this week, after many months of extremely low volatility. In this edition, we analyse how Bitcoin may be hammering out a near-textbook bear market floor, and what risks may lay on the road ahead.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Case for Bitcoin Bulls and Bears As the volatility of Bitcoin markets compress to historical lows, we present both the bull and the bear case for Bitcoin. We cover the $1.5B overhang of a miner deleveraging, weak on-chain activity, persistent draining of exchanges, and unwavering HODLer conviction.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Coiled Spring The Bitcoin market is primed for volatility, with both realized and options implied volatility falling to historical lows. Futures open interest has hit new all-time-highs, despite liquidations being at all-time-lows. Volatility is likely on the horizon, and Bitcoin prices rarely sit still for long.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Calm Before The Storm In stark contrast to highly volatile equity, credit, and forex markets, Bitcoin has remained remarkably stable in recent weeks. With Bitcoin gaining ground on many traditional assets, we evaluate if true bottom formation may be in play, and adjust several metrics for the influence of lost coins.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Hashrate Hits New Highs As global equity and bond markets continue to tread challenging ground, Bitcoin hashrate defies the odds, pushing to yet another all-time high. In this piece, we deep dive into the mining sector to assess whether the worst of the miner capitulation is over, or not.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Great Detox Bitcoin has once again rejected below the psychological $20k region, plunging Short-Term Holders into severe unrealized loss. However, HODLers remain steadfast, with numerous metrics displaying a full cycle detox.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Merge: A Feat of Engineering This week saw the successful deployment of one of the most impressive feats of engineering in the blockchain industry: The Ethereum Merge. We explore it as it happened, on-chain.
