The Week Onchain Newsletter Investor Confidence Slides With almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their position, sentiment has shifted towards the negative. In this report, we explore several measures to track investor sentiment. We develop indicators which assess divergences between the market and observed investor behavior.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Liquidity Drought Liquidity across the digital asset market continues to dry up, with both on-chain and off-chain volumes reaching historical lows. Whilst HODLing remains the market preference, a significant proportion of the supply is teetering on the edge of falling into a significant unrealized loss.
Ethereum and DeFi Tracking Sentiment via Liquidity Pools Volatility has returned to digital assets markets, with performance of ETH and many tokens experiencing outsized drawdowns. Derivatives markets are suggesting liquidity continues to move higher up the risk curve. We also deep dive into how liquidity pools provide market information.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Evaluating Exchange Risk With hindsight and lessons learned from FTX, the monitoring of exchange related risks is a critical component of digital asset risk management. In this report, we develop three indicators which may help highlight periods of heightened counter party risk.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Bitcoin Flash Crash The Bitcoin bulls have been caught off guard this week, as the largest single day sell-off of the year sends BTC prices below $25k. A deleveraging in futures markets appears to be the catalyst, however a bigger concern may be the 88.3% of Short-Term Holder supply now held in an unrealized loss.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Exhaustion and Apathy The Bitcoin market has reached a stage of extreme apathy and exhaustion, with volatility measures and several key on-chain indicators reaching all-time-low readings. With the market being somewhat top-heavy, we assess how investors are responding to the boredom.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Volatility Crush Bitcoin prices are infamously volatile, however the market is currently experiencing an extreme volatility compression. Whilst options markets reflect this, it suggests that Bitcoin is either no longer infamously volatile... or volatility could be mispriced.
Ethereum and DeFi Is DeFi Back in Business? Regulatory conditions in 2023 have been a tug-of-war between positive and negative news, with altcoins and DeFi tokens being most heavily impacted. With MKR and COMP experiencing significant out-performance in recent weeks, we explore how we can extract information from changes in DEX liquidity.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Whale Watching Whale entities for Bitcoin are often cited as key parties that can have an outsized influence on price performance. In this edition, we isolate out Whale activity, which has seen a dramatic uptick over recent months, and develop a suite of tools to track their behavior.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Choppy and Sideways Despite BTC setting a temporary yearly price high of $31.7k, the Bitcoin market remains constrained within an extremely tight trading range. Several metrics indicate a slow and steady capital inflow, with many resembling the choppy market conditions seen in the 2016 and 2019-20 periods.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Stuck in the Middle Bitcoin prices have reached the $30k 'mid-point' of the 2021-22 cycle, with several metrics approaching levels associated with the 're-accumulation period' seen in past cycles. Inscriptions are cooling off, however monetary transactions are picking up steam once again.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Surge in Liquid Staking Since the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, a very clear market preference for liquid staking tokens has emerged. Lido's stETH maintains an impressive dominance, with DeFi capital flows suggesting it has become a preferred collateral asset.
The Week Onchain Newsletter How Many Bitcoin Are For Sale? With a gold rush of applications for a Bitcoin ETF filed this week, a key question is, how many Bitcoin are active and available for sale? In this report, we try to measure the available supply, and assess how demand impacted valuations in past cycles.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Volatile Road to Nowhere Volatility, volumes, and realized values are at multi-year lows, indicating that Bitcoin investor apathy is firmly in play. However, under the surface, HODLers continue their classic slow and steady accumulation, with the halving now less than 1yr away.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Under Pressure: The SEC Charges Binance and Coinbase The US regulatory environment continues hostilities this week, with the SEC charging Binance and Coinbase for securities violations. In this edition, we assess the investor response from the lens of exchange inflows, and which investor cohorts panicked, and which stayed calm.
Ethereum and DeFi Risk-Off Capital Rotation While digital asset prices have remained stagnant in recent months, several indicators point towards a risk-off rotation of capital taking place beneath the surface. Volumes have dried up, and investors are increasingly expressing a preference for stablecoin capital.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Seeking Equilibrium With prices tight, and the volatility spring coiled, the Bitcoin market looks increasingly ready to move out of the current equilibrium. As Long-Term Holder spending ticks marginally higher, we present a series of on-chain tools to help navigate the volatile road ahead.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Quiet But Confident The Bitcoin market has traded within an extremely tight price range this week, whilst on-chain volumes have been extremely light, hovering around cyclical lows. Meanwhile, large swathes of the coin supply remain dormant in investor wallets with supply in several key age bands hitting all-time-highs.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Bitcoin Blockspace Boom Bitcoin blockspace experienced a historically significant inflow of demand last week, as speculators rushed to mint BRC-20 tokens via text inscriptions. This resulted in immense fee pressure, driving miner fee revenue towards ATHs, and surpassing the 6.25 BTC block subsidy for the fifth time.
Ethereum and DeFi Post-Shanghai: What Really Happened We previously simulated the potential economic outcomes of ETH withdrawals enabled by the Shapella upgrade. In this edition, we will examine what actually happened to the 1.55M withdrawn ETH, and how stake has reshuffled between stakers, staking service providers, and sell-side pressure.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Ancient Supply, Mt Gox, and US Government Coins This week, the market experienced a sharp sell-off, following what turned out to be false rumours related to distributions by the Mt Gox Trustee, and the US Government. Add to this the revival of 3.2k ancient Bitcoin, and the market found itself amidst serious volatility.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Allure of Profit After an incredible quarter of price performance, Bitcoin price action has taken a breather. In this edition, we evaluate participant spending behavior to assess the markets conviction towards the prevailing trend.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Is the Bitcoin Bear Behind Us? Bitcoin has posted the strongest price performance since the market all-time-high, with several on-chain indicators signalling strength in support. In this edition, we assess whether the Bitcoin Bear may be behind us, and if a robust recovery is underway.
Ethereum and DeFi Simulating Shanghai Sell-side: Investigating the Ethereum Unlock The highly anticipated Shanghai/Capella hard fork is scheduled to take place on 12-April-2023, which enables withdrawals of staked ETH. In this piece, we establish cohorts of stakers, and assess the potential sell-side pressure which may occur due to the unlock event.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Binance Stablecoin Shuffle With Binance firmly in the cross-hairs of US regulators this week, we investigate how the market has responded by deep diving into net coin flows through the exchange. We also assess the supply dynamics of Bitcoin, to gauge the shaking of holder confidence.
