In this analysis, we utilize concepts borrowed from thermodynamics, to model behaviour of Bitcoin market participants during cyclical tops and bottoms. What we seek are rapid phase changes, analogous to the transition between bull and bear market regimes.

In this Market Pulse, we leverage principles used in Bitcoin behavioural analysis to develop a framework analogous to Measurement While Drilling (MWD) methods. The goal of this framework is to measure investors' resilience to price volatility, and develop a cycle extreme detection model.

As the market rallies from the recent lows, we inspect whether Bitcoin Long-Term Holders are taking the opportunity to exit positions at or above their aggregate cost basis.