BTC Market Pulse: Week 10

Bitcoin markets diverge amid SBR uncertainty. Spot and ETF demand rebound, but derivatives and on-chain activity decline. Futures OI drops, CVD stays negative, and realized profits shrink. Market shows cautious buy-the-dip behavior, awaiting clear catalysts.

BTC Market Pulse: Week 10

Overview

Given the rising uncertainty around the new administration’s plan for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) over recent weeks, the Bitcoin market has seen divergent trends across sectors. Spot and ETF activity are rising, while derivatives and on-chain metrics continue to decline. Spot markets have strengthened, fueled by higher trading volume and a noticeable buy-the-dip reaction following the recent price drop. ETF demand has notably rebounded when compared to last weeks de-risking, with institutional interest beginning to stabilize. However, MVRV levels indicate a more neutral sentiment, reflecting tempered investor expectations.

On the derivatives front, futures open interest has declined, and funding rates remain moderate, pointing to reduced speculative leverage. Perpetual CVD remains negative, indicating continued sell-side pressure from futures traders despite the improving sentiment in spot markets.

On-chain activity is cooling off - declines in active addresses, transfer volume, and total fees signal lower network utilization and reduced economic throughput. Liquidity metrics reveal a slowdown in realized cap growth, suggesting a shift from aggressive accumulation to a more cautious market stance. Meanwhile, profitability indicators continue to decline, with fewer profits being realized relative to losses, hinting at growing risk aversion among investors.

Overall, while spot and ETF activity suggest a noticeable buy-the-dip pattern, on-chain and derivatives data reflect lingering caution, making the market highly sensitive to any future directional catalysts.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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