BTC Market Pulse: Week 15
Bitcoin remains in a fragile state. Weak fundamentals, declining profitability, and soft liquidity make the market vulnerable to macro shocks. Yet, resilience around $80k suggests long-term participants are defending this level – a potentially constructive signal.
Overview
The Bitcoin market continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic volatility and weakening on-chain signals. After a sharp sell-off and rebound to $82k, RSI remains below the statistical low, hinting at an imminent breakout from the consolidation range. Spot CVD fell deeper to -$167M, underscoring persistent sell-side pressure. While spot volume spiked above $12B, it appears driven by reactive selling rather than new demand.
Derivatives markets extend their multi-month downtrend, with open interest dropping to $33.94B. Funding rates rose slightly to $1.11M/day, but this is overshadowed by a sharp drop in Perpetual CVD to -$594M, suggesting taker-driven sell pressure and liquidations. In the options market, volatility expectations have rebounded. While open interest remains muted at $21.77B, the volatility spread flipped to +0.18, and 25 Delta Skew remains elevated at 0.08, pointing to strong hedging activity.
ETF flows turned negative again (-$297M), though weekly trading volume surged to $22.45B amid heightened volatility. ETF MVRV slipped to 1.23, slightly below its statistical band, suggesting ETF holders are testing cost basis levels near $80k – a key zone of interest.
On-chain fundamentals remain subdued. Active addresses and transfer volumes show little strength, and fee volume declined to $458k/day, pointing to low blockspace demand. Liquidity inflows remain soft, with realized cap growth slowing to 0.80% per month. Short-term supply continues maturing into long-term hands, while speculative activity declines – as seen in the Hot Capital Share dropping below statistical lows. Profitability metrics continue their downtrend, with Percent Supply in Profit at 76%, NUPL at 0.45, and Realized P/L Ratio at 0.21.
Overall, Bitcoin remains in a fragile state. Weak fundamentals, declining profitability, and soft liquidity make the market vulnerable to macro shocks. Yet, price resilience around $80k suggests long-term participants are defending this level – a potentially constructive signal if broader conditions stabilize.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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