Market Pulse: Week 29
Bitcoin breaks above $120K as investor conviction surges. This week’s Market Pulse analyzes rising spot and ETF flows, aggressive futures positioning, and elevated on-chain profitability - highlighting both bullish momentum and rising correction risks.
Overview
With Bitcoin breaking out of its recent choppy range to a new ATH, market sentiment has shifted decisively toward optimism. Price momentum accelerated alongside a 46.6% surge in spot volume and a reversal in CVD, indicating meaningful investor participation and a shift toward aggressive buying.
On-chain activity picked up, with transfer volume and ETF flows exceeding statistical highs, reflecting renewed interest from both retail and institutional segments.
The futures market echoed this enthusiasm, with open interest rising above its high band and funding rates spiking to $2.1M, signaling elevated long-side conviction.
Options market behavior showed a nuanced shift, with rising open interest and skew flipping negative, suggesting increasing demand for upside exposure. However, the narrowing volatility spread hints at a more tempered outlook, possibly reflecting expectations of reduced volatility after recent price moves.
Capital rotation metrics point to a slight increase in short-term holder activity, yet the dominance of long-term holders remains intact, supporting market stability. Meanwhile, profit/loss indicators signal caution, with realized profit-taking rising and nearly 99% of the supply in profit, suggesting elevated euphoria and potential risk of corrections.
In sum, the market is in a high-profit, high-conviction phase, supported by both derivatives and spot participation. While the breakout is backed by strong metrics, heightened profit margins and positioning imbalances call for increased vigilance going forward.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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