BTC Market Pulse: Week 9
Bitcoin markets weaken post-Bybit hack, with $2.91B ETF outflows, -$461M Spot CVD, and -$1.48B in Perp CVD. Futures OI declines, leverage unwinds, and profitability drops (NUPL at 0.52). Liquidity is thinning, raising downside risk without renewed demand.
Overview
After the historic Bybit hack, the Bitcoin market continues to face broad-based weakness, with declining trends across spot, derivatives, and ETF markets. Spot activity remains subdued - negative price momentum, deepening sell-side pressure (-$461M Spot CVD), and low volumes signal cautious market participation. ETF flows have also turned decisively negative (-2.91B net outflows), reflecting waning institutional interest.
Meanwhile, derivatives markets are also contracting, with futures open interest declining and perpetual futures showing strong sell-side dominance (-$1.48B CVD). Despite a slight uptick in funding rate payments ($2.41M per day), indicating some traders are attempting to buy the dip, overall leverage is unwinding, leading to reduced market liquidity.
On-chain fundamentals show mixed signals. Active addresses have edged higher, most likely because of investors reacting to volatility, while on-chain transfer volumes have rebounded. However, liquidity is thinning, as realized cap change (2.28% per month) and hot capital share (0.43) continue to decline, indicating that new capital inflows are slowing. Profitability metrics are also deteriorating, with NUPL dropping to 0.52 and the realized P/L ratio falling to 0.59, showing that an increasing number of investors are locking in losses.
With declining liquidity, profitability pressures, and capital outflows, the market is losing key support levels, making it increasingly vulnerable to further downside unless fresh demand re-emerges.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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