The Week Onchain Newsletter Riding the Liquidity Tide Bitcoin continues to relentlessly establish new ATHs, supported by robust capital inflows from both ETFs and the Spot Market, with over $62.9B entering the market over the last 30 days. As the market proceeds to heat up, Long-Term Holder spending begins to rise in tandem.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Featured Trumping to a New ATH Bitcoin’s rally to a new ATH is driven by strong spot demand and institutional inflows, with over 95% of supply in profit. This article explores on-chain indicators, highlighting robust spot buying momentum, rising ETF AUM, futures premiums, and the potential for sustained gains in this ATH phase.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Bitcoin Breaks To New ATHs In the wake of the highly anticipated US Presidential Election, Bitcoin has broken to a new ATH of $75.4k. Under the surface, volatility continues to brew across option markets while on-chain capital inflows continue to expand, suggesting a persistent inflow of new demand.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Stones Throw The Bitcoin spot price has continued to march higher, trading up to $69k, only 6.8% below the ATH. The price uptick has broken through several critical levels using technical and on-chain inputs. This is one of the first signs of positive price momentum since late June.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Eye of the Storm A notable divergence between supply and demand is emerging, with the market being range-bound for over seven months. With low volumes across on-chain and futures markets and a HODLer-dominated environment, the scene is set for heightened volatility in the near future.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Revisiting the Mean Following a 10% price correction, the Bitcoin market has rebounded back to the $63k level, in an attempt to reclaim the critical Short-Term Holder cost-basis.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Higher High For the first time since the ATH, Bitcoin has established a new technical higher high, as price bounced into the $66k region. Alongside this, there is a multitude of critical on-chain metrics that have also set higher highs, making this an interesting moment in time.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Tracing Capital Flows In the wake of the Federal Reserve's 0.5% interest rate cut, Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis of ~$61.9k. This rally could achieve technical significance if the price also holds above the 200-day moving average at $63.9k.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Stagnant Market The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with both demand and supply sides showing signs of inactivity. The market is characterized by minimal capital inflows and outflows, as the stagnant Realized Cap indicates.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Network Overview The competitiveness of the Mining landscape and their conviction in the Bitcoin Network continues to rise, with the Hash Rate blasting towards new ATHs. However, investors remain unconvinced in the short term, with exchange-related onchain volumes beginning to languish.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Short-Term Holder Stress The Bitcoin market has continued to experience downward pressure over recent months despite the average Bitcoin investor remaining profitable overall. However, the Short-Term Holder cohort remains heavily underwater on their holdings, making them a source of risk for the time being.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Return to Equilibrium Market speculation remains relatively subdued for Bitcoin, with investors locking in only marginal profit and losses, and a reset across perpetual swap markets. Historically, periods of quiet and calm market structure are short-lived, and often precede an expectation for heightened volatility.
The Week Onchain Newsletter New Investors Pain Cycle Bitcoin, as the leading digital asset, continues to see its dominance expand, now commanding a staggering 56% of the total market capitalization. Supporting this, Bitcoin Long-Term Holders remain steadfast in their conviction, with significant accumulation pressure below the surface.
The Week Onchain Newsletter A Return to HODLing With the market currently digesting the largest downtrend of the cycle, indecision amongst digital asset investors remains apparent. However, below the surface, a distinct return to HODLing and accumulation appears to be underway.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Mid-Cycle Wipeout August has already been a exceptionally eventful month across both equity and digital asset markets, after a “correlation-1” event sparked a major market sell-off. Bitcoin has been no exception, recording its largest drawdown of the cycle, causing capitulation amongst Short-Term Holders.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Facing Mt. Gox Distribution After more than a decade of legal process, the long awaited creditor distribution of the Bitcoin recovered from the Mt.Gox exchange collapse is underway. From a psychological perspective, this represents the final chapter in what has been a major market overhang over the industry since 2013.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Testing The Range Bands Bitcoin prices have rebounded strongly, rallying over $68k and catalyzing an uptick in perpetual futures activity. The appreciation in price has also provided much-needed relief for the Short-Term Holder cohort, with 75% of their coins now held in profit.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Surviving the Sell-Off The Bitcoin market recently absorbed over 48k BTC in sell-side sourced from the German Government. With Mt Gox distributions also on the horizon, we examine these major sell-side forces, as well as the role ETFs have on price action.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Bulls Under Pressure Following several months of sideways price action, Bitcoin has experienced its deepest correction since late 2022, trading below the 200DMA, and putting a significant number of Short-Term Holders into an unrealized loss.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Grounding Through Confluence The Bitcoin market is in an interesting spot, with the average coin still up 2x, whilst most Short-Term Holders are underwater. A multitude of volatility measures are also heavily compressed, suggesting a larger move is on the horizon.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Sizing Up Diamond Hands As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the recent ATH, we investigate the Long and Short-Term cohorts contribution to the supply and demand side. We also leverage the new breakdown metrics to evaluate the spending behavior and market influence of differing subsets of Long-Term investors.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Establishing Equilibrium Despite choppy price action, the unrealized profit of Bitcoin investors remains constructive. However, volumes across all market facets are declining markedly as an equilibrium between demand and sell-side forces is established.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Dissecting Divergences Despite impressive US ETF inflows, a market-neutral Cash-and-Carry trade appears to be subduing buy-side pressure, requiring non-arbitrage demand to further stimulate price action. Alongside this, we explore the divergence between declining active addresses and surging transaction counts.
The Week Onchain Newsletter Room to Grow After months of apathy and sideways price action, the first glimmers of speculative activity is beginning to re-appear. The market responded to a false alarm regarding the distribution of Mt.Gox supply, however this offers a lens into how we can consider these events using onchain data.
The Week Onchain Newsletter The Calm Bull Residing just shy of the ATH, Bitcoin continues to consolidate, with long-term investors beginning to re-accumulate coins for the first time since Dec 2023. Alongside this, a historic first tranche of Ethereum spot ETFs have been approved in the US, seeing a +20% surge in the ETH price.
