BTC Market Pulse: Week 2
Bitcoin enters 2026 attempting to stabilise after its Q4 drawdown, with price compressing into a broad consolidation range between the low-$80Ks and mid-$90Ks.
Overview
Momentum conditions have begun to recover, with RSI rebounding into the upper-neutral zone, signalling a renewed build-up in upside momentum. Spot market behaviour shows a meaningful reduction in sell-side aggression, while spot volumes have expanded modestly, pointing to improving liquidity without signs of speculative excess.
Derivatives markets are rebuilding positioning in a controlled manner. Futures open interest has edged higher, while long-side funding pressure has cooled materially, reflecting a moderation in bullish leverage rather than capitulation. Perpetual futures have flipped decisively back into net buy-side dominance, highlighting a re-emergence of directional conviction and early accumulation behaviour. Options markets have de-risked aggressively, with open interest contracting sharply and volatility spreads pushing beyond their upper statistical bands, signalling elevated uncertainty and rising expectations for near-term volatility.
US spot ETF flows have flipped positive, with rising volumes and elevated MVRV signalling renewed institutional demand, but also introducing an increasing risk of near-term profit-taking from TradFi participants. On-chain fundamentals remain mixed. Network activity has improved, with active addresses and transfer volumes expanding, while fee pressure remains subdued, suggesting congestion has yet to return. However, realised capital growth remains deeply negative, pointing to persistent net capital outflows and subdued structural demand. Supply dynamics remain skewed toward short-term holders, with hot capital share near cycle highs, increasing sensitivity to near-term price moves.
Profitability metrics continue to recover gradually. A growing share of supply has returned to profit, unrealised losses are easing, and realised loss-taking pressure has declined sharply, signalling a slow improvement in holder sentiment.
In sum, Bitcoin is transitioning out of its corrective phase and into a fragile consolidation regime. While participation and institutional flows are improving, structural on-chain demand remains subdued, leaving the market sensitive to volatility and profit-taking risk as it attempts to rebuild higher ground.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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