BTC Market Pulse: Week 22
Bitcoin pulled back from $79K to $74K before rebounding toward $77K, with momentum and activity cooling. Despite softer sentiment, easing sell pressure hints at early signs of stabilization.
Overview
Bitcoin traded lower over the last week, falling from $79K to a local
low near $74K before rebounding toward $77K, with price
momentum declining by 21.7%, reflecting softer price action and
rising selling pressure. At the same time, Spot CVD and Perpetual
CVD increased by 77.2% and 35.5% respectively, suggesting
selling pressure is easing and market sentiment is becoming more
balanced. Activity has also cooled, with Spot Volume down 10%
and Futures Open Interest declining 3.5%, pointing to reduced
speculative appetite and a more cautious market backdrop.
Despite this, signs of renewed risk appetite are emerging. Longside
funding payments surged 135.4%, highlighting strong demand
for long exposure and improving bullish sentiment. In options
markets, 25-Delta Skew ticked higher, signaling slightly greater
demand for downside protection, while Open Interest remained
broadly stable, suggesting positioning remains intact.
Within TradFi markets, US Spot ETF MVRV rose 0.69%, indicating
slightly larger unrealized gains for ETF holders. Meanwhile, ETF
netflows improved by 28.9%, pointing to easing capital outflows
and stabilizing sentiment, although ETF trade volume fell 22.9%,
suggesting a slowdown in speculative activity.
From a network activity perspective, the daily active address count
and entity-adjusted transfer volume have experienced minor
reductions, hinting at a possible consolidation phase or diminishing
investor activity. Liquidity metrics, including the hot capital share
and STH to LTH supply ratio, indicate a more stable liquidity profile
and a market characterized by higher conviction and lower
speculative activity, suggesting a phase of consolidation.
Profitability metrics, however, flag a potential increase in market
stress. The net unrealized profit to loss ratio has seen a significant
decline, while the realized profit to loss ratio suggests an increase
in loss realization over profit-taking, indicating a cautious and
potentially bearish market sentiment. In summary, the market is
exhibiting signs of moderation and consolidation, characterized by
reduced activity, cautious sentiment, and a mix of risk appetite.
This nuanced picture underscores the importance of continued
close monitoring of market dynamics and investor behavior.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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