Coinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q1 2026

Digital asset markets entered 2026 with cleaner structure, lower leverage, and more disciplined risk expression following last year’s deleveraging. Risk is now being repriced rather than abandoned, with derivatives positioning shifted toward protection. Sentiment remains cautious, but market behavior points to greater structural resilience than in prior cycle transitions.

Produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, our latest Charting Crypto report draws on proprietary market and on-chain data and a quarterly institutional survey to bring institutional investors a trusted perspective on the critical trends this quarter.

• BTC retains structural leadership as Bitcoin Dominance held near 59% even as mid- and small-cap assets failed to sustain previous gains;
• BTC options OI surpassed perpetual futures after October’s deleveraging event, with positioning increasingly concentrated in protective structures as market participants hedged against further downside;
• Investor positioning points to distribution as BTC supply active within three months increased to 37% in Q4 of last year, while long-dormant supply declined modestly;
• ETH may be approaching a late-cycle phase; however, while cycle maturity is becoming evident, its influence on forward returns appears to be diminishing;
• Institutional sentiment remains selectively constructive: survey responses have shown preference for large-cap exposure amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Insights from Q1 2026

1. BTC sentiment remains subdued

Market sentiment for Bitcoin has remained restrained entering Q1 2026. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shifted from Belief to Anxiety during October’s liquidation event and has since stabilized at lower levels. This reflects lingering caution among participants, even as macro conditions and price structure have stabilised.

Historical NUPL regimes show that prolonged periods of Anxiety tend to coincide with consolidation phases, where investors remain engaged but hesitant to re-embrace directional risk. From a structural perspective, this leaves room for sentiment to improve should volatility compress or macro conditions remain stable.

2. Deleveraging reshaped derivatives positioning

Last year's October liquidation event materially reduced systemic leverage across crypto markets. Positions in perpetual futures were unwound at scale, driving the systematic leverage ratio down to approximately 3% of total crypto market capitalization when excluding stablecoins. This marked a clear departure from the leverage-heavy conditions that defined much of 2024 and early 2025.

Rather than exiting risk entirely, market participants reallocated exposure into options markets. BTC options open interest now exceeds that of perpetual futures, with positioning skewed toward defensive structures. This shift reflects a preference for defined-risk exposure. From a market structure standpoint, this transition supports a more resilient trading environment, even if near-term sentiment remains guarded.

3. Ethereum cycle signals carry less forward weight

Ethereum appears to be approaching the later stages of its current price performance cycle, which began from the June 2022 lows. While ETH has delivered meaningful gains over this period, recent indicators suggest that cycle-based signals are losing explanatory power.

Structural changes to Ethereum’s ecosystem, including fee compression on L2s and evolving network economics, have diluted the predictive power of traditional cycle frameworks. As a result, while late-cycle characteristics are becoming more apparent in ETH, cycle timing is increasingly insufficient as a standalone guide for future performance. Market outcomes are now more likely to be driven by broader liquidity conditions and relative positioning than by cycle duration alone.

For the full Q1 2026 edition of Charting Crypto, including institutional survey results and the joint market analysis from the Coinbase and Glassnode analyst teams, download the report here.

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. The analysis represents a limited case study with significant constraints and should not be interpreted as investment advice or definitive trading signals. Past performance patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough due diligence and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.