The Week On-chain Conviction Through Confluence After a month of consolidation around the $20k zone, Bitcoin prices have experienced a much awaited relief rally. Momentum in the short term is favorable, however remains weighed down by longer-term macro indicators that time may be required to form a firm foundation.
The Week On-chain Trading Below The Realized Price Bitcoin prices have now traded below the Realized Price for over a month, with many signals that a deep and complete capitulation has occurred. As a result, numerous signals indicate that genuine bottom formation could be underway.
The Week On-chain Pressure Builds on Diamond Hands With many signals suggesting a widespread capitulation has taken place, attention turns to whether a Bitcoin bottom is forming. Here, we analyse the characteristics and duration of previous bear cycles, to assess what may lie on the road ahead.
Ethereum and DeFi Market Pulse: ETH 2.0 Stakers Are Underwater The Ethereum 2.0 upgrade is one of the most anticipated, and most watched events in digital asset industry. However, with staked ETH locked up, and market prices declining over 75%, the vast majority of stakers are now firmly underwater on their position.
The Week On-chain The Expulsion of Bitcoin Tourists Bitcoin has locked in one of the worst monthly price performances in history, with prices trading down -37.9% in June. Bitcoin has seen a near complete expulsion of market tourists, leaving the resolve of HODLers as the last line standing.
The Week On-chain Is This Time Different? Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin are at all-time lows, signalling potential floor formation. Many are even trading at levels with single digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels. With numerous floor formation signals flashing, the question is, will this time be different?
Bitcoin Analysis & Research A Bear of Historic Proportions 2022 has been a tough year for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with valuations being hit hard and fast. With the extensive duration , and scale of capital destruction of the prevailing, it can reasonably be argued that 2022 is the most significant bear market in digital asset history.
The Week On-chain Falling Dominoes: Capitulations Across the Board The Bitcoin market has reeled from a massive deleveraging event this week, falling below the 2017 $20k ATH. Both on-chain DeFi markets, and off-chain entities deleveraged, as exchanges, lenders, and hedge funds were rendered insolvent, illiquid, or liquidated.
Ethereum and DeFi The Great DeFi Deleveraging The Ethereum DeFi market is undergoing a dramatic deleveraging, with over $124B in capital flushed out in just six weeks. The Ethereum investor base is now heavily underwater on spot positions, and is locking in historically large realized losses.
The Week On-chain The Darkest Phase of the Bear With Bitcoin prices selling off to the mid-$20ks, a plethora of macro indicators suggest the market is entering the deepest phase of this bear cycle. Fundamentals have deteriorated, and even Long-term Holders are now realising significant losses.
The Week On-chain Miner Incomes Under Stress With the market trading near the price lows of the 2021-22 cycle, a great majority of investors are now holding unrealized losses. Furthermore, miners appear to experiencing some income stress, with revenues falling, whilst production costs climb.
How Crypto impacts portfolio performance and allocation As the Q1 2024 Guide to Crypto Markets showed, crypto has already altered portfolio allocation strategies. Characterized by its decentralized nature and potential for high returns, crypto, offers a unique trading opportunity that challenges conventional paradigms.
The Week On-chain Hardened HODLers Double Down In the aftermath of the sell-off in early May, a noteworthy shift in accumulation trends is underway. The Bitcoin HODLer class remain the only ones left, however their accumulation behaviour signals a doubling down as prices correct below $30k.
Product A Short History of the Etherverse We deep dive into Ethereum's most prominent use cases by quantifying gas consumption across major token, protocol, and transaction categories. Our analysis shines a light on the complexity and ever-evolving nature of the Ethereum ecosystem.
The Week On-chain A Bear of Diminishing Returns Price performance over the last 12 months has been nothing short of lacklustre, putting a dent in long-term CAGR rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is supported by a dwindling demand for both chains blockspace, as expressed in on-chain fee markets.
The Week On-chain Unstable Coins The Bitcoin market experienced a week for the history books, with the $40B LUNA/UST project hyper-inflating and collapsing, 80k BTC sold by LFG, the Tether $1 peg coming under pressure, Stablecoin supplies contracting by $7.5B, and a near visit to the Realized Price
The Week On-chain Rate Hikes Drive Markets Lower Bitcoin bulls remain under pressure this week, as prices fall back to $33.8k, and network profitability falls by ~10%. Weakness has appeared across ETF product flows, stablecoin supply contraction, and in investor urgency to deposit coins to exchanges, largely in response to downside volatility.
The Week On-chain Peering Into the Abyss Bitcoin investors are hanging onto the edge of profitability, with short-term price action threatening to put them back into the red. Meanwhile, a constructive confluence of macro indicators are developing into a clearer picture of a potential bear market floor.
The Week On-chain The Growing Dominance of Perpetual Swaps Yields, implied volatility and trading volume in Bitcoin derivatives markets continue to compress, leading to an aggregate decline in capital inflows. On-chain volumes also remain muted, however, more constructive medium to long term fundamental trends are starting to develop.
The Week On-chain Short-Term Pain, But Long-Term Gain? The Bitcoin market has traded back below $40k, as weakness continues to pressure prices lower. However, under the surface, a deep, and widespread capitulation event appears to have been absorbed by persistent, robust and quiet demand.
The Week On-chain Weakness in the Recovery The Bitcoin market pulled back this week after a break-out from the multi-month consolidation range. Prices have thus far struggled to find sustained upside momentum, and there are indications of a modest volume of profit taking by investors.
The Week On-chain Bitcoin as Pristine Collateral As the 19 millionth bitcoin is mined, a number of large public buyers have sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as pristine collateral. Shrimps and Whales are leading widespread coin accumulation, alongside the Luna Foundation Guard who added over 21k BTC to their balance in nine days.
The Week On-chain The Road to Recovery Bitcoin markets have rallied higher this week, as supply older than 1yr pushes towards new all-time-highs. In this analysis, we explore the longer term road to recovery, and how supply dynamics have historically signalled when bearish markets are coming to a conclusion.
The Week On-chain High Volatility Is On the Horizon Bitcoin futures and options markets are pricing in higher volatility in the near future. Meanwhile, on-chain activity remains firmly in bear market territory, but continues to recover meaningfully.
The Week On-chain Short-Term Supply Dwindles Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place, but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.
