The Week On-chain Rate Hikes Drive Markets Lower Bitcoin bulls remain under pressure this week, as prices fall back to $33.8k, and network profitability falls by ~10%. Weakness has appeared across ETF product flows, stablecoin supply contraction, and in investor urgency to deposit coins to exchanges, largely in response to downside volatility.
The Week On-chain Peering Into the Abyss Bitcoin investors are hanging onto the edge of profitability, with short-term price action threatening to put them back into the red. Meanwhile, a constructive confluence of macro indicators are developing into a clearer picture of a potential bear market floor.
The Week On-chain The Growing Dominance of Perpetual Swaps Yields, implied volatility and trading volume in Bitcoin derivatives markets continue to compress, leading to an aggregate decline in capital inflows. On-chain volumes also remain muted, however, more constructive medium to long term fundamental trends are starting to develop.
The Week On-chain Short-Term Pain, But Long-Term Gain? The Bitcoin market has traded back below $40k, as weakness continues to pressure prices lower. However, under the surface, a deep, and widespread capitulation event appears to have been absorbed by persistent, robust and quiet demand.
The Week On-chain Weakness in the Recovery The Bitcoin market pulled back this week after a break-out from the multi-month consolidation range. Prices have thus far struggled to find sustained upside momentum, and there are indications of a modest volume of profit taking by investors.
The Week On-chain Bitcoin as Pristine Collateral As the 19 millionth bitcoin is mined, a number of large public buyers have sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as pristine collateral. Shrimps and Whales are leading widespread coin accumulation, alongside the Luna Foundation Guard who added over 21k BTC to their balance in nine days.
The Week On-chain The Road to Recovery Bitcoin markets have rallied higher this week, as supply older than 1yr pushes towards new all-time-highs. In this analysis, we explore the longer term road to recovery, and how supply dynamics have historically signalled when bearish markets are coming to a conclusion.
The Week On-chain High Volatility Is On the Horizon Bitcoin futures and options markets are pricing in higher volatility in the near future. Meanwhile, on-chain activity remains firmly in bear market territory, but continues to recover meaningfully.
The Week On-chain Short-Term Supply Dwindles Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place, but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.
The Week On-chain A Delicate Equilibrium The Bitcoin market is in a delicate equilibrium, with limited incoming demand, alongside a slowing sell-side. In this edition, we analyse exchange flows specifically to assess the characteristics of Bitcoin sales.
The Week On-chain All-Time-High Buyers Capitulate Amidst kinetic conflict in Ukraine, investors who purchased around the Bitcoin ATH have almost completely capitulated. On the flip-side, the cohort of HODLers continue to accumulate, seemingly unfazed by macro and geopolitical risks.
The Week On-chain Bitcoin Faces Sell-Side Headwinds Bitcoin bulls face a number of headwinds, ranging from dwindling demand on-chain, to over 4.7M BTC held at an unrealized loss. In this edition, we explore this potential sell-side energy carried by underwater investors.
The Week On-chain Investors De-Risk Ahead of Hikes Bitcoin investors have de-risked as global macro headwinds increase. In particular, traders eye the proposed Fed rate hikes in March, opting for protective insurance over speculative calls.
The Week On-chain Is a Bitcoin Bottom in? As Bitcoin prices bounce from multi-month lows, we investigate the likely driving mechanisms, and evaluate the quality of support provided in the $30k-$40k range.
Bitcoin Analysis & Research Exchanges on the Road to SegWit Adoption: on Pioneers, Stragglers and Holdouts We take the recent release of Taproot as opportunity to investigate ways to measure the adoption of SegWit-related Bitcoin improvements in a meaningful way; simultaneously, we put a spotlight on exchanges and their SegWit adoption.
The Week On-chain Levered Shorts vs Spot Demand Bitcoin enters its 82nd day of the prevailing drawdown, as derivatives traders bet on further downside. Meanwhile, on-chain demand models suggest a more bullish undertone is in play.
The Week On-chain Sizing Up a Bitcoin Bear As Bitcoin prices are cut in half from the ATH, the market experiences a large onchain capitulation event, with $2.5B in net realised losses. In response we analyse whether a macro bear has taken the reigns.
The Week On-chain Bulls & Bears Collide Bears are on the hunt for Bitcoin HODLers profits, whilst supply dynamics approach a new equilibrium, and derivative markets remain heated.
The Week On-chain Extreme Leverage at Extreme Depths With onchain indicators hitting significantly oversold conditions, Bitcoin futures markets see all-time-high leverage, with increased chances of volatility, and a short squeeze bias.
The Week On-chain New Year Opens Sideways Bitcoin has opened the new year quietly, with lacklustre demand for blockspace, despite bullish undertones in macro supply dynamics.
The Week On-chain The Week Onchain (Week 52, 2021) Bitcoin closes the year up 78%, having experienced a tumultuous, and volatile 2021. We provide a macro review of 2021 across the onchain, exchange, derivatives, and mining markets.
The Week On-chain The Week Onchain (Week 51, 2021) Bitcoin investors are increasingly underwater, with 1-in-4 coins held at an unrealized loss. We analyse this top heavy market and what it means for sentiment moving forward.
The Week On-chain The Week Onchain (Week 50, 2021) Bitcoin bulls attempt to hold the $50k price level as strong demand pulls coins out of exchanges. However, network profitability suggests this may be the bull/bear line in the sand.
The Week On-chain The Week Onchain (Week 49, 2021) Bitcoin markets have experienced another liquidation cascade, with prices falling $8.8k in a single day, forcing closed over $5.4B worth of futures contracts.
The Week On-chain The Week Onchain (Week 48, 2021) The market continues to drawdown this week, despite Short- and Long-Term investors holding more profitable supply than the recent correction in September.
