Checkmate

Bitcoin has opened the new year quietly, with lacklustre demand for blockspace, despite bullish undertones in macro supply dynamics.

Bitcoin closes the year up 78%, having experienced a tumultuous, and volatile 2021. We provide a macro review of 2021 across the onchain, exchange, derivatives, and mining markets.

The market continues to drawdown this week, despite Short- and Long-Term investors holding more profitable supply than the recent correction in September.

Bitcoin breaks to new all-time-highs as the on-chain dynamics reach an inflection point. We analyse changes in spending patterns, and identify tools for navigating bull market tops.

Bitcoin investor conviction appears to be at all-time-highs, alongside numerous metrics ranging from price, to hash-rate, to proportion of mature coin supply.

Bitcoin rallies to new ATHs alongside the launch of the first futures backed ETF. Long-term Holders are taking modest profits, however are slowing spending during the dip.

Bitcoin breaks above $60k and approaches its all-time price high. Long-Term Holders begin to realise modest profits as Options volumes explode higher.

Underlying on-chain fundamentals continue to paint a bullish picture for Bitcoin, as leverage and futures premiums increase in derivatives markets.

The Bitcoin price has rallied strongly out of a zone of heavy accumulation, seeing around $1.75B worth of capital inflows per day.

Exploring the bull and bear cases for the current market structure, as well as a deep dive into our new Lightning Network metrics.

Bull market Bitcoin buyers take modest profits this week, whilst exchange balances continue to decline, and miner hash-rate recovery continues.

We assess the market response of Bitcoin traders and investors following a week of volatility lead by derivatives markets.

The Bitcoin market shows continued strength, as on-chain volumes indicate a growing dominance, and stickiness of institutional transaction sizes and capital inflows.

An on-chain divergence has developed between price, on-chain activity and supply dynamics, creating a market structure similar to an early bull impulse.

Bitcoin has continued to rally to new multi-month highs despite an uptick in distribution, spending by older coins, and a divergence in on-chain activity.

The Bitcoin market powers higher, supported by a growing body of evidence on-chain that a bullish disbelief rally is in effect.

The market rallies higher as indications of a Bitcoin on-chain supply squeeze take shape, and Ethereum successfully rolls out EIP1559.

As the Bitcoin market rallies over $42k, we analyse the spending and accumulation behaviour of entities on-chain.

The Bitcoin market has experienced a strong rally off the back of a short squeeze returning many coin holders to profitability.

As the probability for high Bitcoin market volatility increases, we analyse the Bull and Bear cases using market and on-chain metrics.

The Bitcoin market squeezes into a tight trading range and we assess a range of market indicators for sentiment and volatility triggers.

The Great Hash-power Migration is underway as an estimated 50% of Bitcoin miners are offline and on the move. We assess the magnitude of this event observed in the on-chain data.

The Bitcoin market continues to fight for support as mining sell pressure increases, institutional demand remains slow, and a second capitulation occurs.

On-chain activity has fallen back to levels not seen in twelve months, just as a seismic shift in Bitcoin hash-rate commences in China.

Bitcoin becomes legal tender in El Salvador, whilst the market remains uncertain over macro direction. On-chain, Long and Short term investors are taking opposing sides of the trade.