Price performance over the last 12 months has been nothing short of lacklustre, putting a dent in long-term CAGR rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is supported by a dwindling demand for both chains blockspace, as expressed in on-chain fee markets.

The Bitcoin market experienced a week for the history books, with the $40B LUNA/UST project hyper-inflating and collapsing, 80k BTC sold by LFG, the Tether $1 peg coming under pressure, Stablecoin supplies contracting by $7.5B, and a near visit to the Realized Price

Bitcoin bulls remain under pressure this week, as prices fall back to $33.8k, and network profitability falls by ~10%. Weakness has appeared across ETF product flows, stablecoin supply contraction, and in investor urgency to deposit coins to exchanges, largely in response to downside volatility.

Bitcoin investors are hanging onto the edge of profitability, with short-term price action threatening to put them back into the red. Meanwhile, a constructive confluence of macro indicators are developing into a clearer picture of a potential bear market floor.

Yields, implied volatility and trading volume in Bitcoin derivatives markets continue to compress, leading to an aggregate decline in capital inflows. On-chain volumes also remain muted, however, more constructive medium to long term fundamental trends are starting to develop.

The Bitcoin market has traded back below $40k, as weakness continues to pressure prices lower. However, under the surface, a deep, and widespread capitulation event appears to have been absorbed by persistent, robust and quiet demand.

The Bitcoin market pulled back this week after a break-out from the multi-month consolidation range. Prices have thus far struggled to find sustained upside momentum, and there are indications of a modest volume of profit taking by investors.

As the 19 millionth bitcoin is mined, a number of large public buyers have sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as pristine collateral. Shrimps and Whales are leading widespread coin accumulation, alongside the Luna Foundation Guard who added over 21k BTC to their balance in nine days.

Bitcoin markets have rallied higher this week, as supply older than 1yr pushes towards new all-time-highs. In this analysis, we explore the longer term road to recovery, and how supply dynamics have historically signalled when bearish markets are coming to a conclusion.

Bitcoin futures and options markets are pricing in higher volatility in the near future. Meanwhile, on-chain activity remains firmly in bear market territory, but continues to recover meaningfully.

Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place, but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.

The Bitcoin market is in a delicate equilibrium, with limited incoming demand, alongside a slowing sell-side. In this edition, we analyse exchange flows specifically to assess the characteristics of Bitcoin sales.