BTC Market Pulse: Week 12 Bitcoin could remain susceptible to further downward pressure unless we see a resurgence in liquidity inflows. While some speculative activity persists, the broader market remains defensive.
Liquidity Crush The Bitcoin market continues to adjust to its new price range after experiencing a -30% correction. Liquidity conditions are also contracting in both on-chain and futures markets. Additionally, Long-Term Holders remain inactive, reinforcing a picture of a sluggish market and sideways price action.
Tracking Early Token Holder Behavior Early token holders often control a large share of supply, making their buying and selling decisions key to market trends. This analysis explores Early Holder Balance, Herfindahl Index, NUPL, and Cost Basis Distribution to help traders anticipate price tops and manage risk effectively.
BTC Market Pulse: Week 11 Bitcoin’s market structure reflects growing risk aversion, with ETF outflows, weakening futures, and declining on-chain activity. Rising options hedging and falling profitability signal investor distress. Without renewed liquidity, downside pressure may persist despite spot market resilience.
Post-ATH Distribution Bitcoin continues to face persistent sell pressure, especially from recent buyers. The asset has seen weak demand and fading accumulation since January. Short-term holders are capitulating, driving STH-SOPR into loss territory, mirroring the August 2024 crash to $49k.
Is the Metaverse Dead? On-Chain Data Tells a Different Story Despite a prolonged downtrend in Metaverse tokens, CBD data reveals that major players continue to dollar-cost average (DCA) into these assets.
BTC Market Pulse: Week 10 Bitcoin markets diverge amid SBR uncertainty. Spot and ETF demand rebound, but derivatives and on-chain activity decline. Futures OI drops, CVD stays negative, and realized profits shrink. Market shows cautious buy-the-dip behavior, awaiting clear catalysts.
Violent Volatility The Digital Asset landscape has experienced whipsawing price action and intense local volatility driven by heavy sell-side pressure. The downside price movement has been amplified by an increasingly uncertain economic environment and speculation related to a US Strategic Digital Asset Reserve.
Capitulation Metrics: Using Cost Basis Distribution to Derive the On-Chain Bottom Signal Market bottoms often form during extreme distress, when forced selling peaks and exhausted investors capitulate. Using Cost Basis Distributing to track supply shifts and sell-offs in assets like Uniswap, Maker, and AIOZ, we arrive at an on-chain bottom signal.
BTC Market Pulse: Week 9 Bitcoin markets weaken post-Bybit hack, with $2.91B ETF outflows, -$461M Spot CVD, and -$1.48B in Perp CVD. Futures OI declines, leverage unwinds, and profitability drops (NUPL at 0.52). Liquidity is thinning, raising downside risk without renewed demand.
Bybit Hack Postmortem Bybit’s historic $1.48B hack triggered panic withdrawals and a market-wide sell-off, pushing the price 20% below its ATH. With the market trading 5% below the cost basis of short-term holders, new investors faced severe pain, intensifying their loss realization.
Expanding Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Coverage: ETH, ERC20, and SPLs Now Included We're expanding Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) beyond Bitcoin to Ethereum (ETH), ERC-20, and SPL tokens - providing deeper insights into evolving cost bases and enhancing visibility into investor positioning, market conviction, and capitulation across assets.
BTC Market Pulse: Week 8 Bitcoin shows mixed signals: weak spot demand ($7.45B volume), cautious derivatives ($46.17B OI, -$169M CVD), and slowing ETF flows. On-chain activity and liquidity inflows are fading, while 86% of supply remains in profit. Without a catalyst, momentum may stall.
Falling Tides Bitcoin is trading in the $93k-$97k range, leading to a wider digital asset market cooldown. Capital inflows are weakening, and derivatives activity is declining. Short-term holder accumulation patterns somewhat resemble May 2021, which was a relatively challenging set of market conditions.
BTC Market Pulse: Week 7 Bitcoin markets show diverging signals: weak spot activity, $45B in futures open interest, and cooling retail interest. Liquidity is rising, sell pressure is easing, and institutions remain active. With volatility low, the market is poised for a breakout.
Profiling the Sell-Off The digital asset market has encountered tumultuous waters in recent weeks, with investors experiencing sharp price falls, and locking in substantial losses. The Altcoin space was the worst hit, with a significant decline in valuations. In this report, we analyze the severity of the sell-off.
BTC Market Pulse: Week 6 Bitcoin shows weakening momentum as price strength fades and sell-side pressure persists. Futures OI tops $47B but contracts, funding rates drop, and on-chain activity slows. Liquidity remains strong, ETFs rise modestly, but signs of trend exhaustion emerge.
Gemini + Glassnode: 2025 Crypto Market Trends Discover institutional-grade insights on the key market drivers and trends shaping crypto in 2025.
A New Mindset The regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin is constantly changing, and new financial instruments such as derivatives and ETF products continue to develop. In this article, we analyze how the composition of digital asset investors is changing around it.
Thinking Ahead The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and Realized Cap change. We also address misconceptions about the exchanges and ETF balances.
Seeking Liquidity Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Challenging Critical Support As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Analyzing the Movement of Capital Across the Solana Asset The last two years have been remarkable for Solana, recording a staggering price appreciation of +2,143%. In this article, we utilize the new breakdown metrics for Solana to inspect and understand the underlying capital flows responsible for the dramatic ascent.
Resilience and Synchronicity Bitcoin continues trading above the psychologically important $100k price level, supported by a consistent inflow of capital. Long-Term Holders are capitalizing on this liquidity, taking the opportunity to distribute supply at scale, setting a new ATH in profit realized of $2.1B.
Time is Money: How Coin Age Shapes Bitcoin’s Spending Patterns We examine the relationship between a coin's age and its spending likelihood. We discover a power-law dynamic that governs this likelihood, highlighting a smooth and mathematically elegant decay in spending behavior as coins grow older.
