Assessing Risk in a Bitcoin Bull On-chain data provides both investors and analysts with a plethora of new tools to diagnose and assess the state of the chain from a multitude of viewpoints. In this article, we produce a new framework for assessing the degree of market risk across various data categories.
Tracking Market Momentum with On-chain Data On-chain data provides analysts and investors with a remarkable degree of transparency into the performance, adoption, and investor positioning within digital assets. In this piece, we highlighted several approaches and frameworks for assessing market momentum across various data categories.
Who's next? With the Bitcoin ETF becoming a classic sell-the-news event, we explore the market's risk appetite for tokens further out on the risk curve. There are some indicators alluding to ETH outperformance, as well as interesting divergences in altcoin price action relative to the majors.
The End of the Beginning: The SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs 2024 has opened with a roller-coaster ride for Bitcoin, as ten new spot ETFs begin trading in US markets. The event was historic and chaotic, with BTC prices setting both new multi-year highs, and YTD lows. Bitcoin has welcomed traditional finance into it's world.
Coinbase + Glassnode: The Q1 Guide to Crypto Markets The Guide to Crypto Markets is a joint publication of Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, and aims to provide a comprehensive view of the metrics and trends that matter the most to institutional investors.
2023 Yearly On-chain Review In this last edition for the year, we will do a whirlwind tour of what changed this year, on-chain. We will explore how the Bitcoin, Ethereum, Derivative, and Stablecoin landscapes have evolved in 2023, and how this sets up the space for an exciting road ahead.
Round-Trip Bitcoin performed a round-trip this week, rallying to new yearly highs before selling off back towards its weekly open. After such a powerful 2023 thus far, the rally seems to have met resistance, with several indicators suggesting a degree of near-term exhaustion.
Gaining Ground Bitcoin continues to lead as one of the best performing assets globally in 2023. Not only has BTC appreciated over 140% YTD, it has more than doubled relative to gold, and still dominates against the rest of the digital asset industry.
Twists and Turns The growth rate of the Ethereum validator set has slowed in recent weeks, as an increasing number of validators voluntarily exit. This has slowed the rate of ETH issuance. Alongside increasing ETH burnt via EIP1559 due to growing network activity, the ETH supply has turned deflationary once again.
Keeping A Firm Grip The volume of Bitcoin supply in profit has reached the levels last was seen 2 years ago as the market came off the Nov 2021 ATH. However, the magnitude of unrealized profit held within these coins remains modest, and thus far insufficient to motivate long-term holders to lock in profits.
Finance Bridge: Spotlight on Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Their Impact Explore with us the potential impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in our latest issue. We try to estimate the potential demand for these ETFs and provide metrics that translate this demand into impact projections. Read for a practical look at how ETFs could influence BTC's market cap and value.
Supply Squeeze The fourth Bitcoin halving is fast approaching, being an important milestone both for the asset, and for investors. In this edition, we deep dive into the impressive tightness of BTC supply, and demonstrate how we can measure investor accumulation patterns in the lead up to the event.
The Tightening of Supply The Bitcoin Supply is historically tight, with an all-time-high in coins held by Long-Term investors, and impressive rates of accumulation taking place. In this edition we explore this tightness using several on-chain supply heuristics and metrics.
The Capital Waterfall The digital asset market continues to post impressive relative performance, with both BTC and ETH appreciating meaningfully against USD and gold. However, within the industry, Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, as indicated by several indicators and approaches for observing capital rotation.
A Breath of Fresh Air Bitcoin prices have broken to new yearly highs, trading above the mid-cycle price level of $30k, and reaching $35k. The market found sufficient strength to break above several important psychological pricing levels, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.
The Cycle of Bitcoin Changing Hands Capital rotation within digital assets markets occurs both between assets, as well as internally as coins change hands at different acquisition prices. In this edition, we develop two indicators based off the Realized Cap and NUPL to track this rotation of capital between investors.
Finance Bridge: Edition #5 In this issue, we assess Bitcoin's resilience as an asset on the backdrop of complex macroeconomic risks.
Capital Flows, Exchanges and Altseason Liquidity across the Digital Asset landscape continues to rescind. In this edition we assess the activity of both the On and Off-chain environment, and produce a new framework to help identify peak Altseason regimes.
stETH's Effect on Ethereum Liquid staking transforms the supply dynamics of ETH and creates a shift in the demand for Ethereum's native token. stETH becomes particularly attractive on lending platforms, while stETH liquidity on decentralized exchanges diminishes.
Inscriptions, Mempools and Miners Inscriptions have been a significant buyer of Bitcoin blockspace since their introduction in Feb 2023. In this edition, we explore whether inscriptions are displacing monetary transfers, and how the increase in fees has impacted miner profitability.
Investor Confidence Slides With almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their position, sentiment has shifted towards the negative. In this report, we explore several measures to track investor sentiment. We develop indicators which assess divergences between the market and observed investor behavior.
The Foundational On-chain Metric: The Realized Cap The Realized Cap is one of the most important on-chain metrics, and is an essential primitive for analysts to master. In this report, we document how the Realized Cap, and its derivatives, describe the fear and greed response of investors, which are the primal forces driving Bitcoin market cycles.
Finance Bridge: Edition #4 In this issue, we revisit some of the foundational profitability metrics discussed in the previous months to check the pulse of the Bitcoin market. We also explore metrics shedding light on liquidity in the crypto markets and see how they can inform investors of risks.
Liquidity Drought Liquidity across the digital asset market continues to dry up, with both on-chain and off-chain volumes reaching historical lows. Whilst HODLing remains the market preference, a significant proportion of the supply is teetering on the edge of falling into a significant unrealized loss.
Tracking Sentiment via Liquidity Pools Volatility has returned to digital assets markets, with performance of ETH and many tokens experiencing outsized drawdowns. Derivatives markets are suggesting liquidity continues to move higher up the risk curve. We also deep dive into how liquidity pools provide market information.
