French La Voie vers le Rétablissement Le marché du bitcoin se redresse cette semaine, l'offre âgée de plus d'un an atteignant de nouveaux sommets historiques. Dans cette analyse, nous explorons la voie de la reprise à plus long terme et la manière dont la dynamique de l'offre a historiquement signalé les fin de marchés baissiers.
Portuguese O Caminho para a Recuperação O preço do Bitcoin teve um rally de alta esta semana, com a oferta com mais de 1 ano sendo empurrada na direção de nova máxima histórica. Nesta análise, exploramos o caminho de longo prazo para a recuperação e como a dinâmica da oferta historicamente sinalizou o fim dos mercados de baixa.
Turkish Toparlanma Yolu 1 yıldan daha eski olan arzın, tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyelerine ulaşmasıyla, Bitcoin piyasaları bu hafta bir ralli yaşadı. Bu analizde, toparlanmaya giden uzun vadeli yolu ve düşüş piyasaları bir sonuca varırken arz dinamiklerinin tarihsel olarak nasıl sinyal verdiğine odaklanıyoruz.
The Week On-chain Newsletter The Road to Recovery Bitcoin markets have rallied higher this week, as supply older than 1yr pushes towards new all-time-highs. In this analysis, we explore the longer term road to recovery, and how supply dynamics have historically signalled when bearish markets are coming to a conclusion.
Farsi نوسانات شدیدی در آینده‌ی نزدیک پیش‌بینی می‌شود بازار فیوچرز و بازارهای مشتقات بیتکوین، احتمالا درآینده نزدیک با نوسانات بالایی روبرو می‌شوند. در همین حال، میزان فعالیت on-chain، همچنان قاطعانه در قلمرو بازار خرسی باقی مانده است. اما روند صعودی بازار برای به دست آوردن قدرت دوباره خود، به تلاش ادامه می‌دهد.
Spanish Se Avista Tormenta de Volatilidad en el Horizonte Los mercados de futuros y de opciones están factorizando un aumento de la volatilidad en sus precios, la actividad del blockchain se mantiene firmemente en territorio de mercado bajista, pero sostiene una recuperación significativa.
Japanese 高ボラティリティの到来 ビットコイン先物・オプション市場では、近い将来にボラティリティが上昇することが予測されている。一方、オンチェーン活動は弱気相場の領域に確固として留まっているが、有意な回復を続けている。
Turkish Ufukta Yüksek Volatilite Belirtileri Bitcoin vadeli işlemleri ve opsiyon piyasaları yakın gelecekte daha yüksek volatilitede fiyatlanıyor. Bunun yanısıra, onchain aktivitesi kesin olarak ayı piyasası bölgesinde kalmaya devam ediyor, ancak anlamlı bir şekilde toparlanmaya devam ediyor.
The Week On-chain Newsletter High Volatility Is On the Horizon Bitcoin futures and options markets are pricing in higher volatility in the near future. Meanwhile, on-chain activity remains firmly in bear market territory, but continues to recover meaningfully.
Portuguese Alta Volatilidade Está no Horizonte Os mercados de futuros e opções de Bitcoin estão precificando maior volatilidade no futuro próximo. Enquanto isso, a atividade on-chain permanece firmemente em território de baixa, mas continua a se recuperar significativamente.
Spanish Se Disipa la Oferta a Corto Plazo Las tendencias de acumulación de Bitcoin se han suavizado a corto plazo, aunque la tendencia de la demanda a largo plazo se mantiene extremadamente positiva.
Chinese 短期供应逐渐减少 尽管长期需求趋势极具建设性，但比特币的积累趋势在短期内已经开始放缓。投降事件的潜在能量已经到位，但还没有像之前市场周期那样表现出来。 本周比特币价格继续横盘，压缩到37,274美元的低点和42,455美元的高点之间，波动范围越来越窄。正如上一版周报所指出的，在全球高度宏观和地缘政治不确定性的背景下，市场目前存在一种微妙的平衡。 我们现在距离2020年3月的重大投降事件已经两年了，在那次事件中比特币价格暴跌超过52%，在两个交易日内从8千美元跌至3.8千美元，标志着2019-20年熊市周期的结束。类似的投降事件往往标志着所有剩余的卖家被完全彻底地冲走，局势从而转向对牛市有利。 在本版中，我们将评估目前买家和卖家之间的平衡，试图衡量我们离当前熊市周期的结束有多远。 执行摘要 * 不确定性和宏观风险是目前的不利因素，这表现为短期积累趋势的变换。 * 在过去的一周里，旧币的卖出也比最近几周略微看跌，尽管仍然没有达到标志着广泛的恐惧或失去信念的水平。 * 短期持有者持有的82%的供应量（251万枚BTC）, 目前以浮亏形式持有，而长期持有者持有的总供应量接近历史最高水平. * 尽
Japanese 短期的な供給は減少 ビットコインの蓄積トレンドは、長期的な需要動向は極めて建設的であるにもかかわらず、短期的には軟化している。キャピチュレーションイベントが起こる潜在的なエネルギーはあるが、以前の市場サイクルにおいてもそうであったように、まだ顕在化してはいない。
Portuguese A Oferta de Curto Prazo Diminui As tendências de acumulação de Bitcoin suavizaram no curto prazo, apesar das tendências de demanda de longo prazo estarem extremamente construtivas. A energia potencial para um evento de capitulação existe, mas ainda não se manifestou como nos ciclos de mercado anteriores.
Turkish Kısa Vadeli Arz Düşüşte Son derece olumlu uzun vadeli talep trendlerine rağmen, Bitcoin biriktirme trendleri kısa vadede yumuşadı. Bir kapitülasyon olayı için potansiyel enerji mevcut, ancak daha önceki piyasa döngülerinde olduğu gibi henüz tekerrür etmedi.
The Week On-chain Newsletter Short-Term Supply Dwindles Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place, but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.
The Week On-chain Newsletter A Delicate Equilibrium The Bitcoin market is in a delicate equilibrium, with limited incoming demand, alongside a slowing sell-side. In this edition, we analyse exchange flows specifically to assess the characteristics of Bitcoin sales.
The Week On-chain Newsletter All-Time-High Buyers Capitulate Amidst kinetic conflict in Ukraine, investors who purchased around the Bitcoin ATH have almost completely capitulated. On the flip-side, the cohort of HODLers continue to accumulate, seemingly unfazed by macro and geopolitical risks.
The Week On-chain Newsletter Bitcoin Faces Sell-Side Headwinds Bitcoin bulls face a number of headwinds, ranging from dwindling demand on-chain, to over 4.7M BTC held at an unrealized loss. In this edition, we explore this potential sell-side energy carried by underwater investors.
The Week On-chain Newsletter Investors De-Risk Ahead of Hikes Bitcoin investors have de-risked as global macro headwinds increase. In particular, traders eye the proposed Fed rate hikes in March, opting for protective insurance over speculative calls.
The Week On-chain Newsletter Is a Bitcoin Bottom in? As Bitcoin prices bounce from multi-month lows, we investigate the likely driving mechanisms, and evaluate the quality of support provided in the $30k-$40k range.
The Week On-chain Newsletter Levered Shorts vs Spot Demand Bitcoin enters its 82nd day of the prevailing drawdown, as derivatives traders bet on further downside. Meanwhile, on-chain demand models suggest a more bullish undertone is in play.
The Week On-chain Newsletter Sizing Up a Bitcoin Bear As Bitcoin prices are cut in half from the ATH, the market experiences a large onchain capitulation event, with $2.5B in net realised losses. In response we analyse whether a macro bear has taken the reigns.
Farsi روند انباشت در کوتاه مدت در حال کاهش است برخلاف روند سازنده‌ی که بواسطه تقاضا از طرف دارندگان بلند مدت در بازار به وجود آمده بود، در حال حاضر شدت انباشت بیتکوین برای کوتاه‌مدت فروکش کرده است. در‌نتیجه خطر تسلیم بازار در مقابل یک خبر احتمالی منفی، بیشتر حس می‌شود. البته در ابتدا باید مانند سیکل‌های قبلی، علائم چنین اتفاقی دیده شود.
